Saturday, Oct. 19
3:30 p.m. Eastern, 12:30 p.m. Pacific
CBS
The new Big Ten is one of the big stories of the 2024 college football season. Oregon is the favorite to win the conference after its victory over Ohio State. However, in Week 8, the new members of the Big Ten will take a back seat to the old guard. Michigan will play Illinois in Champaign, marking the first time that CBS has carried a Michigan-Illinois game since 1983. Illinois won that day to gain the upper hand on Michigan and eventually win the Big Ten championship, earning a ticket to the 1984 Rose Bowl. The stakes aren’t as high in this game, but it’s still a very important moment for an Illinois program trying to make its mark and show that it can play with the big boys.
Of course, when we refer to Michigan as one of the “big boys,” that is more of a reference to Michigan’s national brand name, less of a reference to Michigan in 2024. There’s not much about 2024 Michigan which is “big.” The Wolverines look ordinary this year. They did not get a top passing quarterback in the transfer portal. Accordingly, their passing game is not very strong and does not force opposing defenses to back off the tackle box. Opponents are loading bodies up front to stuff the run, and Michigan has not consistently shown that it can throw the ball when it absolutely has to. Illinois will need to stop the Michigan ground game. However, one week after giving up 49 points to a not-very-good Purdue offense, the Illini should be very concerned about their position heading into this game.
Michigan Wolverines-Illinois Fighting Illini Odds
Spread: Michigan -3.5 (-102), Illinois +3.5 (-120)
Total: 43.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Illinois +125
Hear T.J. and Gary discuss this Big Ten showdown as part of the ‘3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below and make sure to follow/subscribe on Apple/Spreaker/Spotify!
Can Illinois Garner Another Key Win?
Illinois allowing 49 to Purdue might scare a lot of people away from betting on Illinois, or on the under of 43.5 points. That is hard to ignore, and it’s part of the betting context attached to this game. However, if you’re being honest with yourself, you can appreciate the point that Illinois – with Purdue on the schedule one week and Michigan the next – was looking ahead to this game. Allowing 49 points to Purdue is hardly a true reflection of the quality of the Illini’s defense. Illinois has generally been a lot better than that over the course of the season. Michigan has had very deep and continuing problems throwing the ball this season.
The Wolverines can’t spread out opposing defenses to get the matchups and situations they want. If you think Illinois is not trustworthy on defense, you also need to realize that Michigan is not trustworthy on offense. Michigan is not built to exploit Illinois’ weaknesses. This doesn’t necessarily mean Illinois will win, but it does point to a low-scoring game in which Michigan’s offense will struggle. As long as Michigan’s solid defense can keep the Illinois offense under wraps, the under of 43.5 might be the best way to play this game.