Saturday, Oct. 19
12:00 p.m. Eastern, 9:00 a.m. Pacific
ABC
The Miami Hurricanes are still unbeaten. They are lucky to be in this position. They endured a 50-50 call at the end of their win over Virginia Tech. If that call had gone the other way, they would have lost. Then Miami fell behind California 35-10 in the third quarter. Miami still trailed 38-18 with under 11 minutes left in regulation. The Canes had to scramble, and Cal had to melt down in spectacular fashion, for The U to get out of Berkeley with a 39-38 win. Miami could easily be 4-2, but it is 6-0 instead, and very much in line to play Pittsburgh or Clemson for the ACC championship later this season. Cam Ward is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, given his last-minute heroics against both Virginia Tech and Cal.
Ward has given Mario Cristobal and Miami an explosive playmaking quarterback which has changed everything for the program and its offense. Cristobal-coached offenses have historically been very conservative and have kept things close to the vest. Ward has given Miami a new freewheeling identity and an acrobatic kind of athleticism which doesn’t give up on plays and can make something out of nothing. This added dimension of creativity and unique improvisational ability has enabled Miami to win games it simply would not have won in previous years with different quarterbacks.
Louisville is enduring a very difficult season under coach Jeff Brohm. The Cardinals do not have the elite quarterback Miami has. Brohm is one of the best play-callers and schemers in college football, but he doesn’t have the top field general to unlock the potential of his offense. Meanwhile, Louisville’s defense – which was so good in 2023 – is a lot more ordinary in 2024. The Cardinals simply don’t have much margin for error on either side of the ball, and the dramatically adjusted landscape is something Brohm and his staff aren’t finding answers to Louisville’s problems.
Miami Hurricanes-Louisville Cardinals Odds
Spread: Miami -4.5 (-118), Louisville +4.5 (-104)
Total: 61.5 (Over -108, Under -112)
Underdog moneyline: Louisville +162
Hear T.J. and Gary discuss the Cards upset chances on the “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
Miami has been living on the edge
In the big picture, Miami is the better team. In the narrower picture, however, Miami has not played dominant and overwhelming football in recent weeks. The Hurricanes have been begging for a loss by falling behind opponents in second halves and fourth quarters. If they keep tempting fate, it’s going to catch up with them. The question is if Louisville can get off to a good start and put Miami in a hole once again. Louisville was not able to establish that good start at home versus SMU a few weeks ago. Louisville was chasing the game and never had control of the proceedings.
The truly tricky part of this game is that Louisville is likely to treat the contest as its Super Bowl. Louisville is not in contention for a conference title or a New Year’s Six bowl, so spoiling Miami’s unbeaten season is likely to motivate Louisville at a higher level. However, Louisville just isn’t that good. Do you trust the one-game emotional cocktail of college football and bank on Louisville playing its best game, or do you rely on Miami’s superior skill set and overall advantage in talent across the board? This is not an easy game to call.