Saturday, Oct. 5
3:30 p.m. Eastern, 12:30 p.m. Pacific
CBS
The CBS Big Ten game of the week moves to Columbus for the Hawkeye-Buckeye battle. Ohio State hasn’t been severely tested this season. Iowa will try to be the team which makes the Buckeyes work hard for all 60 minutes, but so far this season, we have not seen the Hawkeyes at their best. They gave up several big plays to Troy in an uneven and unconvincing win over the Trojans earlier this season. Iowa blew a 13-point lead at home to Iowa State. Iowa games have actually featured a fair amount of touchdowns this season. Six touchdowns were scored in Iowa’s 31-14 win over Minnesota. If you have been taking the under in Iowa games this year, you have not been cashing tickets the way you did a year ago. This invites the question of whether Iowa can become dominant on defense once again in 2024. The perfect time for Iowa to dramatically improve on defense is this Saturday in the Horseshoe, where Ohio State and starting quarterback Will Howard might face their first really big test of the season.
OSU and Howard are frankly hard to assess through one month of games against cupcake-level opponents. Howard was not a big, splashy addition to the Buckeye roster in the transfer portal, but the thought process Ohio State used was that the Buckeyes are so loaded at every other position that Howard just has to be a capable game manager who makes the routine play on a consistent basis. If Howard executes the offense, Ohio State thinks it has a national championship formula. This Iowa game might give us a true and full sense of where Howard and this Ohio State offense actually stand, heading into the middle third of the season.
Iowa Hawkeyes-Ohio State Buckeyes Odds
Spread: Iowa +19.5 (-105), Ohio State -19.5 (-115)
Total: 45.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Iowa +750
Hear T.J. and Gary breakdown Iowa’s underdog hopes at Ohio State on our “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
Will The Hawkeyes Defense Help Them Hang In
When considering the betting angle on a college football game, especially one played in October – after September rust and uncertainty fade away as relevant factors to evaluate – looking at the schedule becomes important. The cupcake portion of the schedule is over. Now we are fully immersed in conference play. This game might be a walk in the park for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are favored by enough points to give validation to that claim. However, what game comes after this one versus Iowa? It’s the huge October 12 showdown with Oregon in Eugene. This is therefore the classic look-ahead spot for Ohio State. It’s the kind of situation in which a top-ranked team might not be fully focused on the game in front of it. Iowa certainly hopes OSU is thinking about the Ducks, not the Hawkeyes.
In terms of the game itself, former Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara goes up against Ohio State as a member of the Iowa roster. That is one fascinating plot point in this game. Ultimately, though, the spread-based outcome will be decided by how well Iowa can defend Ohio State and its collection of elite running backs and receivers. OSU has a wealth of talent at the skill positions, but can Will Howard get his teammates the ball in the right positions? Red zone efficiency figures to matter, and the smaller size of the field in a red zone situation might be the thing which challenges Will Howard to be extra precise on his throws and reads. Whether Howard masters red zone sequences is probably the central determining factor in which team covers the spread. You will have to decide which way you’re going to lean on that question.