Saturday, Oct. 5
12:00 p.m. Eastern, 9:00 a.m. Pacific
CBS
The Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy series begins with Navy’s trip to Colorado Springs to play Air Force for a game which will start just after 10 a.m. local time in the Rockies. That earlybird kickoff time is a tricky aspect of this game. You don’t know which team will answer the alarm bell, and sometimes, neither one does.
Navy has been reborn under new head coach Brian Newberry. The successor to longtime head coach Ken Niumatalolo has Navy playing well. The Midshipmen’s offense had struggled in the final few years of Niumatalolo’s tenure, but it has regained potency and polish this season, never more so than in a 56-point outburst against Memphis. Navy has scored at least 38 points in all four games, a strong statement in the month of September. This game, however, against Air Force promises to be different. Academy rivalries are normally fierce and low-scoring slugfests.
The over-unders for these games are regularly in the 30s, and this game is no exception. Air Force is not a good team, but the Falcons have been solid on defense. It’s the offense which has hijacked this season for Air Force. Veteran head coach Troy Calhoun simply hasn’t been able to find answers on that side of the ball. AFA has lost three straight games, the most recent one to a lowly Wyoming side which fell earlier this season to Idaho, an FCS team. The Falcons look terrible, but you know they’re going to treat this game as a Super Bowl. Every Commander-In-Chief game receives maximum intensity and buy-in. You know the drill: Records don’t mean a lot when the academies lace ‘em up.
Navy Midshipmen-Air Force Falcons Odds
Spread: Navy -10 (-115), Air Force +10 (-105)
Total: 37 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Air Force +310
How does Air Force hang in?
If Air Force is going to cover the spread and at least give itself a shot at an outright win, it either has to find some offense or it must block or return a kick. Air Force is not going to stay close to Navy and its restored offense if it doesn’t generate some very big and splashy plays. It doesn’t matter where those plays come from – offense, defense, special teams – but Air Force absolutely needs a few game-changing explosive moments in which it scores instantly or creates a very short field for its offense. Air Force scored just seven points at home versus San Jose State earlier this season. That’s the same SJSU team which allowed 54 points to Washington State. Air Force scored just three points in a blowout loss to a Baylor team whose coach, Dave Aranda, is likely to be fired at the end of the season (if not before). Air Force couldn’t even score 20 points against a bad Wyoming team which has been shredded by other moderately decent teams (BYU, Arizona State) this season.
It’s looking grim for Air Force, so if the Falcons are going to get the job done, they have to win the turnover battle, and they have to find a few lightning-bolt sequences which alter the state of play in Colorado Springs. If you want to take Air Force plus the points, go ahead, but this game – with Navy having a new head coach and the kickoff time being closer to breakfast than lunch – has some weird variables which make it the kind of game a smart bettor shouldn’t bet on. There are some games you need to bet on to win money; other times, bettors come out ahead by not betting on a volatile game which is likely to lead to a losing ticket. This game fits the latter description.