Saturday, Sept. 28
3:30 p.m. Eastern, 12:30 p.m. Pacific
CBS
The sex appeal of this game is not what we all thought it would be. The sizzle attached to this contest, with Wisconsin coming to Southern California for a regular-season game – not the Rose Bowl on January 1 – evaporated a few weeks ago when Wisconsin starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke got injured and knocked out for the season with a nasty injury suffered against Alabama. Wisconsin has to go to backup quarterback Braedyn Locke for this game against USC’s improved defense, led by coordinator D’Anton Lynn. If Van Dyke was playing in this game and was healthy, the point spread probably would be in the single digits, maybe at 8.5 or 7.5 points.
As it is, Wisconsin is an underdog of more than two touchdowns to the Trojans even though USC is coming off a loss at Michigan in which its offensive line did not play well. This is a really intriguing game for bettors to consider because Wisconsin is a wounded opponent, and yet USC has not hit its stride and is still searching for answers up front as it moves along with its season.
Wisconsin Badgers-USC Trojans Odds
Spread: Wisconsin +15.5 (-105), USC -15.5 (-115)
Total: 51.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Underdog moneyline: Wisconsin +500
USC played a weird and unusual game against Michigan in this regard: USC’s defense bottled up Michigan’s offense on the vast majority of snaps. On 90 percent of all Michigan offensive plays, the Wolverines did very little and generated a small amount of yards per play. However, Michigan came up with three runs which produced 157 yards. Two of those big runs directly scored touchdowns, and the third run set up the game-winning touchdown in the final minute. Three great plays did the work for Michigan even though USC’s defense won the vast majority o snaps. It’s a reminder that no one gets a prize – or a victory – for being better on a majority of plays. If a handful of losing plays are massive in their impact, that can override 35 or 40 moderately successful plays.
Hear T.J. Rives and Gary Segars break down USC-Wisconsin on the “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
What does this game come down to Saturday afternoon?
The real key to this game, then, is USC not giving up explosive plays to Wisconsin while also being able to find much more consistency on offense. USC played 20 really good minutes of offense against Michigan, dominating the third quarter and the first five minutes of the fourth. The other 40 minutes offered very little, however, and USC struggled to score more than 20 points versus the Wolverines. USC finished with 24 points overall, but seven were set up by a USC takeaway deep in Michigan territory. The offense essentially scored 17 and the defense scored seven. A Lincoln Riley offense expects to score at least 30 points on its own each game, but USC has failed to do that in its two high-profile games this season versus LSU and Michigan.
Ultimately, 15.5 points feels like a lot for a USC offense which is not in top form. USC should definitely win this game outright, but not by 16 or more. Wisconsin plus the points looks like the better play, though don’t go for that fat underdog moneyline. The Badgers will not have enough offense to win outright.