Saturday, Sept. 21
3:30 p.m. Eastern, 12:30 p.m. Pacific
CBS
The new Big Ten era takes off with this classic matchup of college football blue bloods in Ann Arbor. USC goes to the Big House for a conference game on a September Saturday. Usually, when USC and Michigan have played each other in the past, it has been in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena on January 1. They met several times in the 1970s. They met in back-to-back seasons at the end of the 1980s. They met twice in the 2000s under Pete Carroll and Lloyd Carr. Now they take their Rose Bowl history to the Big Ten regular season. The fact that this is a conference opener, not just a conference game, adds a little extra spice to the occasion.
USC comes in after an idle week, meaning the Trojans have had two full weeks to prepare. Michigan played Arkansas State last week, so Michigan has been finding a weekly rhythm of game preparation. Many will say that USC’s extra week of preparation helps the Trojans, but early in the season, it could be the case that USC having its weekly routine interrupted by an off week could actually be a negative for the Trojans, whereas Michigan might get into a groove as a result of playing every week and learning more from week to week about how to play properly.
That’s just one of the many plot points to consider in this game. Keep in mind that when game lines were released in the summer, Michigan was close to a 10-point favorite. If you got a USC plus-10 ticket in July or early August, you are loving life, because the line has swung by more than two touchdowns due to USC’s great start and Michigan’s early stumbles. Let’s say a little more about this game below the odds:
USC Trojans-Michigan Wolverines Odds
Spread: USC -6 (+100), Michigan +6 (-120)
Total: 44 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Michigan +170
Hear more on this iconic matchup off our “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
How Michigan might pull off an upset?
In this game, it all comes down to Michigan’s defensive line and its ability to create havoc against USC’s offensive line. If Michigan’s defensive line can dominate, it can force turnovers from USC quarterback Miller Moss. Michigan creating turnovers can lead to short fields and easy points, which is what the Wolverines will need to win, given their sputtering offense. Michigan will probably need a defensive touchdown, a kick return, something other than an offensive score, to win this game, because Michigan’s offense faces a lot of questions, most centrally at quarterback. Davis Warren, who started against Texas and then against Arkansas State, is out. Alex Orji, widely viewed as a running quarterback, is in. Michigan will have a tough time throwing the ball down the field. UM will need to establish the run, but USC is going to stack the tackle box and dare Michigan to throw. Michigan needs its best defensive game to win, because its offense isn’t likely to carry the freight.
The best play in this game might be the under 44 total more than a side, but it’s another game in which so much is uncertain and the best point-spread play might be to watch the first quarter and then make a determination of where the game is likely heading.