Friday, Oct. 18
10:15 p.m. Eastern, 7:15 p.m. Pacific
ESPN
The plot points for this game between BYU and Oklahoma State aren’t remotely close to what anyone probably expected before the 2024 college football season began. BYU is unbeaten midway through the campaign and is a strong favorite in this game against Mike Gundy’s struggling Oklahoma State team, which is 0-3 in Big 12 play. Can you imagine anyone who envisioned that scenario in late August or early September? BYU will be favored in each of its remaining games, with the possible sole exception of the road trip to Salt Lake City to face Utah in early November.
BYU is in excellent position to make the Big 12 Championship Game in December and play for a spot in the College Football Playoff. That’s an astounding turn of events for a team which was not expected to be especially good this year. Kalane Sitake has coached some overachieving BYU teams before, but this is his best coaching job yet. Meanwhile, on the other side of the divide, Mike Gundy – who coached a top-three team in the 2011 season but was denied a spot in the BCS National Championship Game – has fallen on hard times at Oklahoma State. Gundy has fielded some great teams at OSU, but this is a season which has fallen through the cracks. Can the Cowboys get off the canvas and pull a pronounced surprise against one of the biggest overachievers of the college football season?
Oklahoma State Cowboys-BYU Cougars Odds
Spread: Oklahoma State +9.5 (-108), BYU -9.5 (-112)
Total: 53.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Underdog moneyline: Oklahoma State +260
Hear T.J. and Gary with their underdog handicapping for this week on the “3 Dog Thursday Podcast” by clicking play below,
How Damaged Is Oklahoma State?
Oklahoma State just lost to West Virginia by 24 points. BYU just defeated Arizona by 22 points. Purely on merit, and on the basis of what these teams have done this season – particularly in recent weeks – BYU would seem to be the best choice against the spread. However, because Oklahoma State was so pancake flat against WVU, and because this game is being played on a short week with a Friday night kickoff, it is reasonable and logical to think that BYU will have a hangover while Oklahoma State will be highly motivated to play at a much higher level than what we saw versus West Virginia. It’s true that BYU has set a much higher standard between these two teams, but it’s also true that so many Big 12 teams have been erratic and volatile this year.
One team will play terribly one week and will then bounce back the next. The Big 12 has been one of the toughest conferences to figure out in major college football this year. Lots of point spreads in Big 12 games have been lower than four points. Seeing a Big 12 spread close to 10 points is therefore notable for any betting expert. This is an indication that BYU is perceived to be far better than Oklahoma State. One could then make the argument that if BYU is so much better and is playing at home, why is the spread only 9.5 and not 13.5? This feels like the kind of game in which you will want to watch the first 20 minutes. Maybe BYU immediately gets off to a 14-0 start and wins by 27, but unless BYU does start very quickly, you might want to wait until late in the second quarter or until halftime to make a live bet.